Status: Ongoing
First registered on:
10/04/2020
Last updated on:
18/05/2020
1. Study identification
EU PAS Register NumberEUPAS34663
Official titlePharmacological risk factors for COVID-19 infection: a matched prospective cohort study of patients in primary care
Study title acronym
Study typeObservational study
Brief description of the studyBackground:
There has been speculation that drugs used to manage chronic conditions such as type 2 diabetes and hypertension could lead to increased risk of both COVID-19 infection and deaths related to the infection. On the other hand there is also belief that some medications may be protective (e.g. HCQ). This has been amplified on social media and there is no current evidence to support these hypotheses.
In order to provide appropriate guidance for these high risk patients, it is essential that we conduct a pharmaco-epidemiological study to investigate these effects.
Aim:
This study will aim to identify the effect of current use of various antihypertensive treatments (ACE inhibitors, ARAs and calcium channel blockers), therapies for type 2 diabetes (SGLT2 inhibitors), NSAIDs and hydroxychloroquine on COVID-19 infection rates and related mortality. We will compare the rates and severity (hospitalisation due to COVID-19, mortality) of COVID-19 infection among patients prescribed with the above-mentioned drugs (with an underlying condition indicating a necessity for their prescription) compared to propensity score matched patients prescribed with comparator drugs (with the same underlying condition).
Design:
Propensity score matched cohort study with active comparators.
Target population:
Adults aged 50 years and above with a diagnosis of hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus, rheumatoid arthritis and osteoarthritis as of 30th Jan 2020.
Outcomes:
(1) Composite of confirmed, suspected or probable diagnosis of COVID-19
(2) Confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19
(3) COVID-19 associated mortality
(4) Hospitalization due to COVID-19
Was this study requested by a regulator?No
Is the study required by a Risk Management Plan (RMP)?
Not applicable
Regulatory procedure number (RMP Category 1 and 2 studies only)
Other study registration identification numbers and URLs as applicable
2. Research centres and Investigator details
Coordinating study entity
Centre nameInstitute of applied health research, University of birmingham
Centre locationBirmingham, UK
Details of (Primary) lead investigator
Title Dr
Last name Krishnarajah
First name Nirantharakumar
Is this study being carried out with the collaboration of a research network?
No
Other centres where this study is being conducted
Not applicable (single centre)
Countries in which this study is being conducted
National study
United Kingdom
3. Study timelines: initial administrative steps, progress reports and final report
PlannedActual
Date when funding contract was signed17/04/2020
Start date of data collection17/04/202015/05/2020
Start date of data analysis17/04/202015/05/2020
Date of interim report, if expected17/05/2020
Date of final study report17/06/2020
4. Sources of funding
Please provide estimates of the percentage of funding by source for this study
Names(s)Approximate % funding
Pharmaceutical companies
Charities
Government body
Research councils
EU funding scheme
OtherTBC100
5. Contact details for enquiries
Scientific Enquiries
Title Dr
Last name Krishnarajah
First name Nirantharakumar
Address line 1Institute of applied health research
Address line 2
Address line 3
CityBirmingham
PostcodeB152TT
CountryUnited Kingdom
Phone number (incl. country code)441214148344
Alternative phone number
Fax number (incl. country code)
Public Enquiries
Title Dr
Last name Krishnarajah
First name Nirantharakumar
Address line 1Institute of applied health research
Address line 2
Address line 3
CityBirmingham
PostcodeB152TT
CountryUnited Kingdom
Phone number (incl. country code)441214148344
Alternative phone number
Fax number (incl. country code)
6. Study drug(s) information
Substance class (ATC Code)C02 (ANTIHYPERTENSIVES)
Substance class (ATC Code)A10B (Sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors)
Substance class (ATC Code)P01BA02 (hydroxychloroquine)
Substance class (ATC Code)M01 (ketoprofen, combinations)
Substance class (ATC Code)A10BA02 (metformin)
Substance class (ATC Code)B01 (prasugrel)
Substance class (ATC Code)C10 (atorvastatin and perindopril)
7. Medical conditions to be studied
Medical condition(s)Yes
Type 2 diabetes mellitus
Hypertension
Rheumatoid arthritis
Osteoarthritis
Polycystic ovaries
Atrial fibrillation
Cardiovascular examination
8. Population under study
Age
Adults (45 - 64 years)
Adults (65 - 74 years)
Adults (75 years and over)
Sex
Male
Female
9. Number of subjects
Estimated total number of subjects15000
10. Source of data
Is this study being carried out with an established data source?Yes
Data sources registered with ENCePP
Sources of data
Routine primary care electronic patient registry
11. Scope of the study
What is the scope of the study?
Risk assessment
Effectiveness evaluation
Primary scope : Risk assessment
12. Main objective(s)
What is the main objective of the study?
The overall aim of this study is to investigate the effects of routine medications used to manage underlying chronic conditions on the rate and severity of COVID-19 infection.
Are there primary outcomes?Yes
Outcomes:
(1) Composite of confirmed, suspected or probable diagnosis of COVID-19
(2) Confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19
(3) COVID-19 associated mortality
(4) Hospitalization due to COVID-19
Are there secondary outcomes?No
13. Study design
What is the design of the study?
Cohort study
14. Follow-up of patients
Will patients be followed up?Yes
Please describe duration of follow up
Patients will be followed up from the 30th January 2020 until the earliest of the following dates: recording of the outcome, non-COVID-19 death, patient left practice/dataset, practice ceased contributing to the database, and study end (30th June 2020).
15. Data analysis plan
Please provide a brief summary of the analysis method
We will use descriptive statistics to summarize the characteristics of the patients in each of the current prescription cohorts. We will provide the descriptive statistics for the exposure pairs: 1) as derived without matching; 2) after coarsened exact matching; 3) propensity score matching.
Crude incidence rates of each outcome will be calculated with 95% CIs. In the primary analysis, we will apply a Cox proportional hazards regression model to determine crude and adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for pharmacological risk modifiers comparing pairs of treatment groups in patients with the underlying indicative condition for each of the outcomes mentioned. In addition, we will report survival curves adjusted for baseline confounders, and/or HRs at increasing periods of follow-up.
16. ENCePP seal
Are you requesting the ENCePP seal for this study?
No
17. Full protocol
Available when the study ends
18. Study Results
Not submitted
Please list the 5 most relevant publications using data from your study
ReferenceLink to web-publication
None
19. Other relevant documents
Conflict(s) of interest of
investigator(s)Not submitted
Composition of Steering Group and
ObserversNot submitted
Other documentsNot
submitted
Signed Code of
Conduct Checklist
Not submitted
Signed Code of Conduct Declaration
Not submitted
Signed Checklist for Study
Protocols
Not submitted
